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Strong inference

certain systematic methods of scientific thinking may produce much more rapid progress than others.

The Peer Reviewers’ Openness Initiative: incentivizing open research practices through peer review.

Openness is one of the central values of science. Open scientific practices such as sharing data, materials and analysis scripts alongside published articles have many benefits, including easier replication and extension studies, increased …

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set …

Better P-curves: Making P-curve Analysis More Robust to Errors, Fraud, and Ambitious P-hacking, a Reply to Ulrich and Miller (2015)

When studies examine true effects, they generate right-skewed p-curves, distributions of statistically significant results with more low (.01 s) than high (.04 s) p values. What else can cause a right-skewed p-curve? First, we consider the …

Big Correlations in Little Studies: Inflated fMRI Correlations Reflect Low Statistical Power-Commentary on Vul Et Al. (2009)

Vul, Harris, Winkielman, and Pashler (2009), (this issue) argue that correlations in many cognitive neuroscience studies are grossly inflated due to a widespread tendency to use nonindependent analyses. In this article, I argue that Vul et al.'s …

Conservative tests under satisficing models of publication bias.

Publication bias leads consumers of research to observe a selected sample of statistical estimates calculated by producers of research. We calculate critical values for statistical significance that could help to adjust after the fact for the …

Defining and distinguishing validity: Interpretations of score meaning and justifications of test use.

The concept of validity has suffered because the term has been used to refer to 2 incompatible concerns: the degree of support for specified interpretations of test scores (i.e., intended score meaning) and the degree of support for specified …

Investigation and its discontents: Some constraints on progress in psychological research.

Examines several prominent trends in the conduct of psychological research and considers how they may limit progress in the field. Failure to appreciate important differences in temperament among researchers, and differences in the particular talents …

Mindless statistics

Statistical rituals largely eliminate statistical thinking in the social sciences. Rituals are indispensable for identification with social groups, but they should be the subject rather than the procedure of science. What I call the “null ritual” …

On the Surprising Longevity of Flogged Horses: Why There Is a Case for the Significance Test

Criticisms of null-hypothesis significance tests (NHSTs) are reviewed. Used as formal, two-valued decision procedures, they often generate misleading conclusions. However, critics who argue that NHSTs are totally meaningless because the null …
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