发表偏倚（文件抽屉问题 [Publication bias (File Drawer Problem)]
定义: 发表偏倚指没有根据“研究结果的方向或强度”来发表研究成果（Dickersin & Min, 1993, p. 135）。当研究发表价值的评估过度依赖其结果时——通常表现为更倾向于发表新颖且显著的结果而非重复研究或不显著的结果，便会产生这种偏倚。其典型表现为显著结果的比例异常偏高及效应量被高估，导致已发表的科学文献无法全面反映所有研究事实，尤其造成不显著结果的比例过低。这些未被发表的研究最终被塞入所谓的“文件抽屉”，既不会被发表也没有文献记录可查。
相关术语: Dissemination bias, P-curve, P-hacking, Selective reporting, Statistical significance, Trim and fill, Meta-Analysis
参考文献:
- Dickersin, K., & Min, Y. (1993). Publication Bias: The Problem That Won’t Go Away. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 703(1), 135–148. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-6632.1993.tb26343.x
- Devito, N., & Goldacre, B. (2019). Publication Bias. Catalogue of Bias. https://catalogofbias.org/biases/publication-bias/
- Duval, S., & Tweedie, R. (2000). A nonparametric “trim and fill” method of accounting for publication bias in meta-analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 89–98. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669529
- Duval, S., & Tweedie, R. (2000). Trim and fill: A simple funnel-plot–based method of testing and adjusting for publication bias in meta-analysis. Biometrics, 56, 455–463. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0006-341x.2000.00455.x
- Franco, A., Malhotra, N., & Simonovits, G. (2014). Publication bias in the social sciences: Unlocking the file drawer. Science, 345(6203), 1502–1505. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1255484
- Lindsay, D. S. (2020). Seven steps toward transparency and replicability in psychological science. Canadian Psychology/Psychologie Canadienne, 61(4), 310–317. https://doi.org/10.1037/cap0000222
- Rothstein, H. R., Sutton, A. J., & Borenstein, M. (2005). Publication bias in meta-analysis. In Publication bias in meta-analysis: Prevention, assessment and adjustments (pp. 1–7). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1002/0470870168.ch1
原稿作者: Mahmoud Elsherif
审阅者: Jamie P. Cockcroft, Gilad Feldman, Adrien Fillon, Helena Hartmann, Tamara Kalandadze, William Ngiam, Martin Vasilev, Olmo van den Akker, Flávio Azevedo
翻译者: AI-driven translation tool "TransFlow" (developed by Jinbiao Yang and COSN OpenTransfer team)
译稿审阅者: Zixi Wang, Liangjie Chen, Ruoting Liu, Shuxian Jin