贝叶斯推断 [Bayesian Inference]

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定义: 一种基于贝叶斯定理的统计推断方法,它利用概率的数学语言来表达认识论上的(不)确定性。贝叶斯推断是在各种可能性之间分配(并根据最新观察到的数据或证据重新分配)可信度。现有的两种贝叶斯推断方法包括“贝叶斯因子” 和贝叶斯参数估计。

相关术语: Bayes Factor, Bayesian statistics, Bayesian Parameter Estimation

参考文献:

  • Dienes, Z. (2011). Bayesian versus orthodox statistics: Which side are you on? Perspectives on Psychological Science, 6(3), 274–290. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691611406920
  • Dienes, Z. (2014). Using Bayes to get the most out of non-significant results. Frontiers in Psychology, 5, 781. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00781
  • Dienes, Z. (2016). How Bayes factors change scientific practice. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 72, 78–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2015.10.003
  • Etz, A., Gronau, Q. F., Dablander, F., & others. (2018). How to become a Bayesian in eight easy steps: An annotated reading list. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25, 219–234. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-017-1317-5
  • Kruschke, J. K. (2015). Doing Bayesian data analysis: A tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan (2nd ed.). Academic Press.
  • McElreath, R. (2020). Statistical rethinking: A Bayesian course with examples in R and Stan (2nd ed.). Taylor.
  • Wagenmakers, E.-J., Marsman, M., Jamil, T., Ly, A., Verhagen, J., Love, J., Selker, R., Gronau, Q. F., Šmíra, M., Epskamp, S., Matzke, D., Rouder, J. N., & Morey, R. D. (2018). Bayesian inference for psychology. Part I: Theoretical advantages and practical ramifications. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25(1), 35–57. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-017-1343-3

原稿作者: Charlotte R. Pennington

审阅者: Alaa AlDoh, Bradley Baker, Robert Ross, Markus Weinmann, Tobias Wingen, Steven Verheyen

翻译者: AI-driven translation tool "TransFlow" (developed by Jinbiao Yang and COSN OpenTransfer team)

译稿审阅者: Cathy Fang, Liangjie Chen, Ruoting Liu, Shuxian Jin