选择性终止 [Optional Stopping]

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定义: 选择性终止是指在数据收集的过程中，研究人员频繁进行分析，并在统计标准（如p值或贝叶斯因子）达到指定阈值时决定停止数据收集的做法。如果采取适当的统计方法控制一类错误率，选择性终止可以成为一种高效的分析程序（参见：Lakens, 2014）。然而，如果没有透明报告和适当的错误控制，一类错误率可能急剧上升，选择性终止可能被认为是不当研究行为（QRP）或p值操纵的表现。

相关术语: *P*\-hacking, Questionable Research Practices or Questionable Reporting Practices (QRPs), Sequential testing

参考文献:

  • Beffara Bret, B., Beffara Bret, A., & Nalborczyk, L. (2021). A fully automated, transparent, reproducible, and blind protocol for sequential analyses. Meta-Psychology, 5. https://doi.org/10.15626/MP.2018.869
  • Lakens, D. (2014). Performing high-powered studies efficiently with sequential analyses. European Journal of Social Psychology, 44(7), 701–710. https://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.2023
  • Sagarin, B. J., Ambler, J. K., & Lee, E. M. (2014). An ethical approach to peeking at data. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 9(3), 293–304. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691614528214
  • Schönbrodt, F. D., Wagenmakers, E.-J., Zehetleitner, M., & Perugini, M. (2017). Sequential hypothesis testing with Bayes factors: Efficiently testing mean differences. Psychological Methods, 22(2), 322–339. https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000061

原稿作者: Brice Beffara Bret; Bettina M. J. Kern

审阅者: Ali H. Al-Hoorie, Helena Hartmann, Catia M. Oliveira, Sam Parsons

翻译者: AI-driven translation tool "TransFlow" (developed by Jinbiao Yang and COSN OpenTransfer team)

译稿审阅者: Xinyu Wang, Liangjie Chen, Ruoting Liu, Shuxian Jin