验证性分析 [Confirmatory analyses]

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定义: 验证性分析是指在验证性-探索性区分中，那些预先设定并用于检验既有假设的分析方法（Wagenmakers et al., 2012）。现有研究表明，已发表研究成果中若缺乏这种明确区分，很可能导致研究可复现性问题，而预注册可以清晰界定验证性与探索性分析，被视为是解决这一问题的有效途径。不过也有学者对这些术语提出质疑，建议用“发现导向”和“理论检验研究”来代替（Oberauer & Lewandowsky, 2019; Szollosi & Donkin, 2019）。

相关术语: Exploratory data analysis, Preregistration

参考文献:

  • Box, G. E. P. (1976). Science and statistics. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 71(356), 791–799.
  • Oberauer, K., & Lewandowsky, S. (2019). Addressing the theory crisis in psychology. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 26(5), 1596–1618. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-019-01645-2
  • Szollosi, A., & Donkin, C. (2019). Arrested theory development: The misguided distinction between exploratory and confirmatory research. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/your_doi_placeholder
  • Tukey, J. W. (1977). Exploratory data analysis. Addison-Wesley.
  • Wagenmakers, E. J., Wetzels, R., Borsboom, D., van der Maas, H. L., & Kievit, R. A. (2012). An agenda for purely confirmatory research. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7(6), 632–638. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691612463078

原稿作者: Jenny Terry

审阅者: Mahmoud Elsherif, Eduardo Garcia-Garzon, Helena Hartmann, Mariella Paul, Charlotte R. Pennington, Timo Roettger, Lisa Spitzer

翻译者: AI-driven translation tool "TransFlow" (developed by Jinbiao Yang and COSN OpenTransfer team)

译稿审阅者: Cathy Fang, Liangjie Chen, Ruoting Liu, Shuxian Jin