Confirmatory analyses

Last updated on Feb 26, 2026
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Definition: Part of the confirmatory-exploratory distinction (Wagenmakers et al., 2012), where confirmatory analyses refer to analyses that were set a priori and test existent hypotheses. The lack of this distinction within published research findings has been suggested to explain replicability issues and is suggested to be overcome through study preregistration which clearly distinguishes confirmatory from exploratory analyses. Other researchers have questioned these terms and recommended a replacement with ‘discovery-oriented’ and ‘theory-testing research’ (Oberauer & Lewandowsky, 2019; see also Szollosi & Donkin, 2019).

Related terms: Exploratory data analysis, Preregistration

References:

  • Box, G. E. P. (1976). Science and statistics. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 71(356), 791–799.
  • Oberauer, K., & Lewandowsky, S. (2019). Addressing the theory crisis in psychology. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 26(5), 1596–1618. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-019-01645-2
  • Szollosi, A., & Donkin, C. (2019). Arrested theory development: The misguided distinction between exploratory and confirmatory research. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/your_doi_placeholder
  • Tukey, J. W. (1977). Exploratory data analysis. Addison-Wesley.
  • Wagenmakers, E. J., Wetzels, R., Borsboom, D., van der Maas, H. L., & Kievit, R. A. (2012). An agenda for purely confirmatory research. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7(6), 632–638. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691612463078

Originally drafted by: Jenny Terry

Reviewed by: Mahmoud Elsherif, Eduardo Garcia-Garzon, Helena Hartmann, Mariella Paul, Charlotte R. Pennington, Timo Roettger, Lisa Spitzer