Epistemic uncertainty
Definition: Systematic uncertainty due to limited data, measurement precision, model or process specification, or lack of knowledge. That is, uncertainty due to lack of knowledge that could, in theory, be reduced through conducting additional research to increase understanding. Such uncertainty is said to be personal, since knowledge differs across scientists, and temporary since it can change as new data become available.
Related terms: Aleatoric uncertainty, Knightian uncertainty
References:
- Der Kiureghian, A., & Ditlevsen, O. (2009). Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter? Structural Safety, 31(2), 105–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2008.06.020
- Ferson, S., Joslyn, C. A., Helton, J. C., Oberkampf, W. L., & Sentz, K. (2004). Summary from the epistemic uncertainty workshop: consensus amid diversity. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 85(1–3), 355–369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2004.03.023
Originally drafted by: Bradley Baker
Reviewed by: Jamie P. Cockcroft, Elizabeth Collins, Charlotte R. Pennington, Graham Reid