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Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve

Glenn D. Rudebusch, John C. Williams

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2009. DOI 10.1198/jbes.2009.07213

Has this study been replicated?

The atlas records 2 replications of this study. Recorded outcomes: 2 successful.

Replications

• Reassessing the Predictive Power of the Yield Spread for Recessions in the United States, Coe & Vahey (2024). Outcome recorded: successful. We find that both the yield spread and financial conditions perform relatively well at the longer horizons considered by the experts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. View paper
• Reassessing the Relative Power of the Yield Spread in Forecasting Recessions, Croushore & Marsten (2015). Outcome recorded: successful. Our results show that the Rudebusch‐Williams findings are robust in all dimensions. View paper

Other studies in the atlas

• Reassessing the Predictive Power of the Yield Spread for Recessions in the United States
• Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility
• Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility: Re‐examination and extens…
• Forecasting Inflation in a Data-Rich Environment: The Benefits of Machine Learning Methods
• The benefits of forecasting inflation with machine learning: New evidence
• The U.S. Structural Transformation and Regional Convergence: A Reinterpretation

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