Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty

Baruch Fischhoff

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1975. DOI 10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288

Has this study been replicated?

The atlas records 3 replications of this study. Recorded outcomes: 2 failed, 1 successful.

Hindsight Bias: A Preregistered Replication Study Of Fischhoff (1975) With An Extension On Depressive Symptoms As Moderation, Seda et al. (2025). Outcome recorded: failed. These results suggest a low replicability of Fischhoff's (1975) seminal experiment View paper
Retrospective and prospective hindsight bias: Replications and extensions of Fischhoff (1975) and Slovic and Fischhoff (1977), Chen et al. (2021). Outcome recorded: successful. In Study 1 (N = 890), we replicated Experiment 2 in Fischhoff (1975), and found support for hindsight bias in retrospective judgments (dmean = 0.60). View paper
Replication and extension of Fischhoff (1975): hindsight bias with clinical mediators of depressive symptoms, Pinto (2024). Outcome recorded: failed. "There was no significance (p < 0.05) between retrospective and prospective judgments in our sample."