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On the psychology of experimental surprises

Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1977. DOI 10.1037/0096-1523.3.4.544

Has this study been replicated?

The atlas records 1 replication of this study. Recorded outcomes: 1 successful.

Replications

• Retrospective and prospective hindsight bias: Replications and extensions of Fischhoff (1975) and Slovic and Fischhoff (1977), Chen et al. (2021). Outcome recorded: successful. In Study 2 (N = 608), we replicated Experiment 1 in Slovic and Fischhoff (1977), and found support for hindsight bias in prospective judgments (dmean = 0.40). View paper

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