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How prevalent is wishful thinking? Misattribution of arousal causes optimism and pessimism in subjective probabilities

Joachim Vosgerau

Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 2010. DOI 10.1037/a0018144

Has this study been replicated?

The atlas records 1 replication of this study. Recorded outcomes: 1 failed. The earliest on record is from 2016.

Replications

• Conceptual and direct replications fail to support the stake-likelihood hypothesis as an explanation for the interdependence of utility and likelihood judgments, de Molière & Harris (2016). Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. Outcome recorded: failed. we were unable to replicate previous results, with a Bayesian meta-analysis demonstrating support for the null hypothesis. Outcome read from the abstract. View paper

Cite this record

Vosgerau, J. (2010). How prevalent is wishful thinking? Misattribution of arousal causes optimism and pessimism in subjective probabilities. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 139(1), 32–48. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0018144

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