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How prevalent is wishful thinking? Misattribution of arousal causes optimism and pessimism in subjective probabilities

Joachim Vosgerau

Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 2010. DOI 10.1037/a0018144

Has this study been replicated?

The atlas records 1 replication of this study. Recorded outcomes: 1 failed.

Replications

• Conceptual and direct replications fail to support the stake-likelihood hypothesis as an explanation for the interdependence of utility and likelihood judgments, de Molière & Harris (2016). Outcome recorded: failed. we were unable to replicate previous results, with a Bayesian meta-analysis demonstrating support for the null hypothesis. View paper

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