Why people are reluctant to tempt fate

Jane L. Risen, Thomas Gilovich

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2008. DOI 10.1037/0022-3514.95.2.293

Has this study been replicated?

The atlas records 4 replications of this study. Recorded outcomes: 3 failed, 1 mixed.

Many Labs 2: Investigating Variation in Replicability Across Samples and Settings, Klein et al. (2018). Outcome recorded: mixed. This is consistent with the hypothesis that people believe tempting fate increases the likelihood of a negative out- come, though the effect size was less than half the effect size in the original study (d = 0.18, 95% CI = [0.14, 0.22], vs. original d = 0.39). View paper
Many Labs 5: Testing Pre-Data-Collection Peer Review as an Intervention to Increase Replicability, Ebersole et al. (2020). Outcome recorded: failed. 95% CI for the meta-analytic replication includes 0 under both the RP:P and Revised Protocols (effect not significant in the same direction as the original under either). View paper
Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science, unknown authors (2015). Outcome recorded: failed. Coded as not replicated: Replicate = 0 (the project's binary success indicator combining significance and direction). View paper
Eleven years of student replication projects provide evidence on the correlates of replicability in psychology, Boyce et al. (2023). Outcome recorded: failed. Our data failed to replicated both of these findings. View paper